NL West is Arizona’s to Lose

Hopefully the Diamondbacks are not peaking too early. With a six-game lead over San Francisco and less than a month left in the season, the West is now Arizona’s to lose. After sweeping the Padres and Rockies, the Dbacks now head into San Francisco for a head-to-head NL West showdown, and repeat the process in the final week of the season. Looking ahead to the remainder of the schedule, however, it’s hard to see the Dbacks losing the west. Here’s why.

Giants – Though Arizona began the first half of the season with a 2-7 record against the Giants, including going winless on the road, the Dbacks are currently surging as the Giants flounder. So far in the second half of the season, they’ve turned things around, taking two of three from San Francisco in at AT&T Park. Six games, three in Arizona and three in San Francisco, remain between the teams – the same amount that separates them in the west. The Dbacks have won nine straight and in the time between the Giants’ last nine wins, they lost 13 games. I like Arizona’s chances in the last 6 games of this series.

Rockies – After heading to San Francisco, Arizona drops in at altitude to play their last three games against Colorado. We know the Dbacks have the Rockies’ number at the moment, coming off a sweep at home in which they scored 18 runs. They have largely dominated the season series, going 11-4 including 8 of the last 9 against Colorado dating back to May 24th. There’s not much to suggest that Arizona won’t continue this trend next week.

Padres – Then, by some strange twist of fate, the Diamondbacks host the Padres, another team they just swept at Chase Field while outscoring them 14-2. It’s four of the last seven against the Pads, with the final series in San Diego on the weekend of the 16th. Arizona is 3-3 on the road against San Diego, but with momentum and the opportunity to welcome them back to Chase Field in the meantime, I wouldn’t expect the last three in San Diego to be much of a challenge. The Padres have won just 18 games this season against NL West opponents.

Dodgers – After that the Dbacks head to L.A. for three of the last six against the Dodgers. The season series favors the Dbacks slightly at 7-5, and Arizona has a 5-4 record at Chavez Ravine. This may be Arizona’s toughest series going down the stretch, as the Dodgers are streaking themselves winning 8 of their last 9, including 3 games in St. Louis. At 12 games back, the season looks all but over for the woeful Dodgers, which could help Arizona down the stretch if the Dodgers don’t give 100% effort in the final three games of the season at Chase Field.

Pirates – Kicking off the 9-game homestand that wraps up the season are three games against the 62-74 Pittsburgh Pirates. The Dbacks lost 2 of 3 in the first half of the season when they visited P-town, but I wouldn’t expect similar results this time around. The Pirates had a dreadful August, winning just eight games after starting the month two games above .500. The team’s 22 loses in August killed whatever spirit they had build in the middle of the season, and it’s likely their spirits will continue fading through September as the season ends.

So as you can see, even if the Diamondbacks lose all 6 games to the Giants, they still have 19 games against the Rockies, Padres, Dodgers and Pirates where they can make up for it. The Giants, too, play these bottom-feeding teams (save for the Pirates), so things could come down to that final series at Chase Field in the last week of the season.

We’ll have to wait and see, but things look good for Arizona. As I said, it’s their’s to lose.